Typhoon Lupit (International Name) local Philippine name "Ramil" Alerts and Updates

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed October 21 2009):

Continuing issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY LUPIT (RAMIL)

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr

TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 026
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Thu 22 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #034
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

• ·  LUPIT(RAMIL) loses strength, barely a Typhoon as it continues moving very slowly. High hopes are now on all forecast models as the system may likely track towards the north and spare Northern Luzon this weekend.
  
  *Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).
  
  *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to continue decelerating further to just 2 kph while moving Westward w/in the next 24 to 48 hours. Its wind speed will slightly re-intensify as it moves closer near the coast of Cagayan. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT still at a snail-pace motion as it begins turning WNW into the Balintang Channel, passing north of Cagayan on Monday until Tuesday (Oct 26-27). *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a strong possibility that LUPIT might track abruptly Northward and recurve towards Southern Japan, sparing Extreme Northern Luzon. The probability of this alternate forecast remains high, as majority of various numerical guidance models depicts this scenario. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered. So please stay tuned.

+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation has deteriorated during the past 6 hours. A surge of dry air entered the system along the northwest portion which caused the weakening to just minimal Typhoon intensity (120 kph). The core and its inner rainbands remains at sea with its outer rainbands continues to affect Cagayan, Isabela & Aurora. Cloudy skies w/ light passing rains & winds not exceeding 55 kph can be expected along these bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 150 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 300 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially along Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Island Group, Isabela & Ilocos Norte. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Thu October 22 2009
Location of Eye: 18.7º N Lat 124.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 265 km (143 nm) ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 290 km (157 nm) ESE of Calayan Island
Distance 3: 295 km (160 nm) NE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 4: 300 km (162 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 310 km (167 nm) NE of Ilagan City
Distance 6: 385 km (208 nm) ENE of Laoag City
Distance 7: 570 km (308 nm) NNE of Metro Manila
Distance 8: 590 km (318 nm) NNE of Naga City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the Eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Rainbands' Rain Rate: 2 to 30 mm/hr (.02 to 1.2 in/hr) new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Calayan-Babuyan Islands
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 32 ft (9.7 m)
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:2 PM Thu Oct 22
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Thu Oct 22
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3)
In Effect:BATANES GROUP, CAGAYAN, CALAYAN & BABUYAN ISLANDS, & APAYAO.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, KALINGA, ISABELA, ABRA, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, BENGUET, LA UNION, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, & AURORA.

The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning tonight or tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect:PANGASINAN, TARLAC, NUEVA ECIJA, ZAMBALES, PAMPANGA, BULACAN, NORTHERN QUEZON, & POLILLO ISLANDS.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tonight or tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves) that could reach a high of 5 feet or more.

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (6 AM PST Fri October 23 2009):

Continuing issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY LUPIT (RAMIL)

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr

TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 027
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Fri 23 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #036
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

• ·  TyphoonLUPIT(RAMIL) sill holding on as it remains almost stationary near the coast of Cagayan. Inner rainbands spreading across Cagayan, Northern Isabela & Batanes.
  
  *Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).
  
  *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to drift westward slowly closer to the Northern Coast of Cagayan...and weaken into a Tropical Storm. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT still at a snail-pace motion as it begins turning WNW to NW as it passes off the northern coast of Cagayan on Monday (Oct 26) and over the Balintang Channel-Calayan Island Area on Tuesday through Wednesday (Oct 27-28). *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a strong possibility that LUPIT might track abruptly North to NNE and recurve towards Southern Japan, away from Extreme Northern Luzon. The probability of this alternate forecast remains high, as almost all of the various numerical guidance models depicts this scenario. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered. So please stay tuned.

+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation has continued to lose organization as strong dry air from the west affects the system. The core remains at sea with its inner rainbands now spreading across Batanes, Cagayan & Isabela. Light to moderate rains w/ tropical storm force winds not exceeding 85 kph can be expected along these bands. While its outer rainbands continues to affect the rest of Northern Luzon - where overcast skies along w/ light passing rains & gale-force winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 150 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 300 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially along Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Island Group, Isabela & Ilocos Norte. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Fri October 23 2009
Location of Eye: 18.8º N Lat 123.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 215 km (115 nm) ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 230 km (125 nm) ESE of Calayan Island
Distance 3: 240 km (130 nm) NE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 4: 255 km (137 nm) SE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 325 km (175 nm) ENE of Laoag City
Distance 6: 535 km (290 nm) NNE of Metro Manila
Distance 7: 580 km (313 nm) North of Naga City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the Eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Rainbands' Rain Rate: 2 to 30 mm/hr (.02 to 1.2 in/hr) new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 05 kph (03 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Cagayan's Northern Coast
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 33 ft (10.0 m)
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:2 AM Fri Oct 23
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Fri Oct 23
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3)
In Effect:BATANES GROUP, CAGAYAN, CALAYAN & BABUYAN ISLANDS, APAYAO, & ILOCOS NORTE.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: -ILOCOS SUR, KALINGA, ISABELA, ABRA, & MT. PROVINCE.

The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect:LA UNION, BENGUET, IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO & NORTHERN AURORA.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves) that could reach a high of 5 feet or more.

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html

Typhoon Lupit may spare the Philippines

Typhoon Lupit continues to struggle with dry air, which has significantly disrupted the typhoon's inner core, leading to a partial collapse of the eyewall. Lupit is now a minimal Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Recent microwave imagery shows that the typhoon is missing a large portion of its western eyewall, and this morning's infrared satellite loop shows that the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity is rather disorganized. Even in its current weakened state, Lupit is a dangerous rain-maker, with rainfall rates exceeding twelve inches per day near its core (Figure 2)NOAA/NESDIS.

While it is too early to be confident of this forecast, it now appears that Lupit will spare the Philippines a direct hit and a punishing deluge of 12+ inches of rain. The typhoon has slowed in reaction to a collapse of the steering currents, and most of the models are now calling for Lupit to stall just offshore, or recurve to the northeast. The very slow motion of the storm means that it will stir up large quantities of cool water from the depths that will then surround the storm, making re-intensification unlikely, and decreasing the amount of rain the storm is able to produce. The typhoon's core of heaviest rain appears likely to remain offshore, though the extreme northern portion of Luzon Island may still receive 6 - 12 inches of rain before the storm finally departs.

Figure 2. Forecast rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC Friday 10/23/09. Lupit is expected to dump rains in excess of twelve inches (red colors) near its core. However, this core of heavy rain will remain offshore over at least the next two days. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Posted by: JeffMasters, 1:49 PM GMT on October 22, 2009

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri October 23 2009):

Continuing issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY LUPIT (RAMIL)

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 kph
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 028
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Fri 23 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #037
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

• ·  LUPIT(RAMIL) weakens into a Tropical Storm as dry air continues to feed into its weakening circulation. Inner rainbands still spreading across Cagayan and Batanes Group.
  
  *Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).
  
  *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to continue drifting very slowly westward, closer to the Northern Coast of Cagayan. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT turning very slowly WNW to NW as it passes about 75 km north of Northern Cagayan on Monday (Oct 26) and shall be over the Balintang Channel on Tuesday through Wednesday (Oct 27-28) with decreasing wind speeds. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a strong possibility that LUPIT might track abruptly North to NNE and recurve towards Southern Japan, away from Extreme Northern Luzon. The probability of this alternate forecast remains high, as almost all of the various numerical guidance models continues to show this scenario. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered. So please stay tuned.

+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation has continued to weaken as strong dry air from the west affects the system. The core remains at sea with its inner rainbands spreading across Batanes, Calayan Island and Cagayan. Light to moderate rains w/ tropical storm force winds not exceeding 85 kph can be expected along these bands. While the outer rainbands continues to affect the rest of Northern Luzon - where overcast skies along w/ light passing rains & gale-force winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected. 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 25 to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 300 to 500 mm (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT. Click here to view the latest eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially along Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Island Group, Isabela & Ilocos Norte. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Fri October 23 2009
Location of Center: 19.1º N Lat 123.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 185 km (100 nm) NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 190 km (103 nm) East of Calayan Island
Distance 3: 205 km (110 nm) SE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 235 km (127 nm) NE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 300 km (162 nm) ENE of Laoag City
Distance 6: 550 km (297 nm) NNE of Metro Manila
Distance 7: 610 km (330 nm) North of Naga City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
24-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 300-500 mm new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Projected Area of Impact: Balintang Channel-Batanes
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 31 ft (9.4 m)
T2K TrackMap #025 (for Public):12 PM PST Fri Oct 23
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:8 AM Fri Oct 23
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 11 AM Fri Oct 23
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3)
In Effect:BATANES GROUP, CAGAYAN, CALAYAN & BABUYAN ISLANDS, APAYAO, & ILOCOS NORTE.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: -ILOCOS SUR, KALINGA, ISABELA, ABRA, & MT. PROVINCE.

The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect:LA UNION, BENGUET, IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO & NORTHERN AURORA.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves) that could reach a high of 5 feet or more.

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri October 23 2009):

Continuing issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS LUPIT (RAMIL)

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 029
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Fri 23 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #038
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

• ·  Tropical StormLUPIT(RAMIL) has turned northward away from Cagayan's Coast during the past 3 hours and continues losing strength...threat to Extreme Northern Luzon diminishing.
  
  *Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).
  
  *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT's forecast has changed...now gearing towards the Alternate Forecast Scenario...expected to drift slowly towards the north for the next 24 hours. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT recurving to the NNE or NE slowly in the direction of Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands, as the steering high pressure ridge to its right becomes the dominant factor of pushing LUPIT poleward. The core shall be about 185 km. to the south of Okinawa, Japan on Wed Oct 28th as weakend tropical storm with winds of only 85 kph. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation has continued to weaken as strong dry air from the west affects the system. The core remains at sea, just east of Basco with its inner rainbands spreading across Batanes, Calayan Island and Cagayan. Light to moderate rains w/ tropical storm force winds not exceeding 85 kph can be expected along these bands. While the outer rainbands continues to affect the rest of Northern Luzon - where overcast skies along w/ light passing rains & gale-force winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected. 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 25 to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 300 to 500 mm (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT. Click here to view the latest eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially along Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Island Group, Isabela & Ilocos Norte. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Fri October 23 2009
Location of Center: 19.9º N Lat 123.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 140 km (75 nm) ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 190 km (103 nm) ENE of Calayan Island
Distance 3: 230 km (125 nm) NNE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 300 km (162 nm) NNE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 330 km (178 nm) NE of Laoag City
Distance 6: 630 km (340 nm) NNE of Metro Manila
Distance 7: 700 km (378 nm) North of Naga City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
24-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 300-500 mm new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Projected Area of Impact: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 31 ft (9.4 m)
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:2 PM Fri Oct 23
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Fri Oct 23
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3)
In Effect:BATANES GROUP, CAGAYAN, CALAYAN & BABUYAN ISLANDS, APAYAO, & ILOCOS NORTE.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: -ILOCOS SUR, KALINGA, ISABELA, ABRA, & MT. PROVINCE.

The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect:LA UNION, BENGUET, IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO & NORTHERN AURORA.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves) that could reach a high of 5 feet or more.

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html