After Typhoon Ramil (Lupit), Typhoon Mirinae (SANTI) to hit P.A.R. (Alerts and Updates)

oh my god, mukhang sapol na naman ang manila! we need to prepare for the worst..

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed October 28 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS & email advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY MIRINAE (SANTI).

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MIRINAE (SANTI/23W/0921) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 kph

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TYPHOON MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Thu 29 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #012
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

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• ·  TyphoonMIRINAE(SANTI) still on a slightly fast westerly track towards Luzon...expected to make landfall somewhere between Aurora and Northern Quezon...Full preparations must be implemented at this time.
  
  *Residents and visitors along the eastern coast of Luzon (from Batanes down to Bicol Peninsula) should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).
  
  *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE's forecast outlook has changed slightly to the south...expected to continue tracking on a straight Westward track within the next 24 hours. The 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on Friday evening, Oct 30, passing more or less 250 km. North of Bicol Region. The core shall make landfall over Casiguran, Aurora early Saturday morning Oct 31 and cross Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, Northern Pangasinan, La Union and exit thru Lingayen Gulf-Cape Bolinao Area in Northern Pangasinan. MIRINAE will be in the middle of the South China Sea on Monday, November 02...and will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm as it approaches Central Vietnam on November 02. MIRINAE shall dissipate after making its final landfall over Vietnam on November 03. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8PM last night (Oct 28), showed the system making landfall over Northern Quezon, Rizal, Bulacan, Pampanga, and Zambales beginning Saturday afternoon until Sunday morning (Oct 31-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more and pushes MIRINAE more Southwestward. This scenario remains weak at this time. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE's compact circulation has slightly expanded as it moves over a slightly warm Philippine Sea. Its EYE remains cloud-filled. The rainbands of this typhoon remains at sea and not yet affecting any major islands. The initial effects of the outer rainbands of MIRINAE over Eastern Luzon can be expected beginning Friday morning, Oct 30. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 80 mm (moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 200 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

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Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Thu October 29 2009
Location of Eye: 16.2º N Lat 132.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 970 km (525 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 1,015 km (548 nm) ENE of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 3: 1,050 km (567 nm) ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 1,080 km (583 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 5: 1,100 km (595 nm) ENE of Daet, Cam.Norte
Distance 6: 1,155 km (623 nm) East of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 7: 1,210 km (653 nm) East of Baler, Aurora
Distance 8: 1,275 km (690 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 160 kph (85 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph (105 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Aurora
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 27 ft (8.2 m)
T2K TrackMap #01 (for Public):6 AM PST Thu Oct 29
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:2 AM Thu Oct 29
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Thu Oct 29
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
Now In Effect:ISABELA, AURORA, NORTHERN QUEZON AND POLILLO ISLANDS.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tonight or early tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html

Message appended on October 29, 2009 03:52PM

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed October 28 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS & email advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY MIRINAE (SANTI).

---

MIRINAE (SANTI/23W/0921) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 kph

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TYPHOON MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 010
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Thu 29 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #013
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

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• ·  TyphoonMIRINAE(SANTI) has gained strength as it moves on a new track and forecast...now threatens Eastern and Central Luzon including Northern Bicol.
  
  *Residents and visitors along the eastern coast of Luzon (from Cagayan down to Bicol Peninsula) should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).
  
  *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE's forecast outlook has changed more to south closer to the ECMWF model...expected to cross the heart of Central Luzon. The 3 to 5-day Medium-Range Forecast now shows the system approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on Friday night, Oct 30, passing more or less 190 km. North of Bicol Region around 9 PM. The core shall make landfall over Northern Quezon, in between the towns of Baler, Aurora and Infanta, Quezon around 7-8 AM Saturday morning Oct 31 and cross Nueva Ecija and Tarlac - passing over Cabanatuan City (about 80 km. north of Metro Manila) around 9 AM. MIRINAE will exit Luzon via Iba, Zambales Saturday afternoon and shall be in the middle of the South China Sea on Sunday, November 01. This system shall be downgraded into a Tropical Storm before making its final landfall over Vietnam on Monday, Nov 02. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE's circulation continues to exhibit good organization as it moves over a slightly warm Philippine Sea. Its EYE remains cloud-filled w/ its rainbands still at sea and not yet affecting parts of Eastern Luzon. The initial effects of the outer rainbands of MIRINAE over Eastern Luzon including Bicol Region can be expected beginning tomorrow morning. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning tomorrow. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & Northern Visayas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

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Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Thu October 29 2009
Location of Eye: 15.8º N Lat 130.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 760 km (410 nm) NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 795 km (430 nm) ENE of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 3: 830 km (448 nm) NE of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 865 km (467 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 5: 880 km (475 nm) ENE of Daet, Cam.Norte
Distance 6: 940 km (507 nm) ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 7: 995 km (537 nm) East of Baler, Aurora
Distance 8: 1,060 km (572 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (105 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 30 kph (16 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Northern Quezon-Aurora
Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:8 AM Thu Oct 29
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Thu Oct 29
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
Now In Effect: POLILLO ISLANDS.

The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
Now In Effect:CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, ISABELA, IFUGAO, AURORA, QUIRINO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, NUEVA ECIJA, BULACAN, RIZAL, & QUEZON.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html

Message appended on October 29, 2009 09:40PM

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed October 28 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS & email advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY MIRINAE (SANTI).

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MIRINAE (SANTI) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 kph

---

TYPHOON MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 011
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Thu 29 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #014
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

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• ·  TyphoonMIRINAE(SANTI) continues to threaten a wide-swath of areas in Luzon with landfall projection either Aurora or Northern Quezon...now tracking Westward during the past 3 hours.
  
  *Residents and visitors along the eastern coast of Luzon (from Cagayan down to Bicol Peninsula) should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).
  
  *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE's forecast outlook continues to change more to south matching the ECMWF (European) guidance model...expected to cross the heart of Central Luzon. The 2 to 5-day Medium-Range Forecast now shows the system approaching the northern coast of Bicol Region tomorrow night - passing more or less 150 km. North of Naga City around 10 PM. The core (eye and eyewall) will pass over Polillo Island around 2 AM Saturday and make landfall over Northern Quezon just north of Infanta between 5-6 AM as a Category 2 typhoon w/ winds of 160 kph. It will then cross Bulacan, Pampanga around 10 AM - passing about 25 km. North of Quezon City and will be over Subic Bay/Olongapo City area at around 2 PM Saturday. MIRINAE will be in the middle of the South China Sea on Sunday, November 01 and will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm before making its final landfall over Vietnam on Monday, Nov 02. It will dissipate over Cambodia on Nov 03. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE's convective circulation has slightly weakened but its wind speed remained intact. The EYE remains cloud-filled w/ its rainbands still at sea and not yet affecting parts of Eastern Luzon. The initial effects of the outer rainbands of MIRINAE over Eastern Luzon including Bicol Region can be expected beginning tomorrow morning. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 02 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning tomorrow. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & Northern Visayas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

---

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Thu October 29 2009
Location of Eye: 16.0º N Lat 129.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 640 km (345 nm) NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 680 km (368 nm) ENE of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 3: 715 km (387 nm) NE of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 750 km (405 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 5: 760 km (410 nm) ENE of Daet, Cam.Norte
Distance 6: 810 km (437 nm) East of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 7: 865 km (467 nm) East of Baler, Aurora
Distance 8: 935 km (505 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (105 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 30 kph (16 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Northern Quezon-Aurora
Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
T2K TrackMap #02 (for Public):6 PM PST Thu Oct 29
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:2 PM Thu Oct 29
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Thu Oct 29
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
Now In Effect: AURORA, NORTHERN QUEZON, AND POLILLO ISLAND.

The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
Now In Effect:CAMARINES PROVINCES, CATANDUANES, REST OF QUEZON, RIZAL, BULACAN, PAMPANGA, NUEVA ECIJA, TARLAC, PANGASINAN, NUEVA VIZCAYA, BENGUET, QUIRINO, IFUGAO, AND ISABELA.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html

Message appended on October 30, 2009 09:27AM

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed October 28 2009):

Now issuing 3-hrly Web, SMS & E-mail Advisories on TY MIRINAE (SANTI).

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MIRINAE (SANTI) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 kph

---

TYPHOON MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 013
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Fri 30 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #016
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

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• ·  TyphoonMIRINAE(SANTI) continues on its WSW track and is now moving closer to Northern Bicol and Polillo Islands.
  
  *Residents and visitors along the Bicol Region, Eastern, Southern and Central Luzon should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).
  
  *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE is expected to resume its Westward track and maintain its strength, passing close to the coastal areas of Northern Bicol or about 150 km. North of Naga City around 10 PM tonight. Its Core (Eye & Eyewall) will pass very close to Polillo Islands early tomorrow morning (2 AM Sat) and make landfall over Northern Quezon, just north of Infanta around 7 AM...then will cross Bulacan and Pampanga (Clark Air Base) around 8 or 9 AM or about 55 km. North of the City of Manila. Around noontime tomorrow, MIRINAE will be moving into the mountain ranges of Zambales and exit towards the South China Sea in the afternoon (Sat). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system approaching the coast of Vietnam as a downgraded Tropical Storm due to increase wind shear over the area on Nov 1 through Nov 2...and then will make landfall over Vietnam and dissipate over Cambodia on Tuesday, Nov 03. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE's convective circulation has regain rain cloud convection as it moves closer to Eastern Luzon. The EYE remains cloud-filled w/ its outer rainbands now spreading across the Bicol Region. Rains and winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected across the Bicol Region, deteriorating later today as the typhoon approaches. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 02 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning tomorrow. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & Northern Visayas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

---

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Fri October 30 2009
Location of Eye: 15.2º N Lat 126.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 315 km (170 nm) NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 350 km (190 nm) NE of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 3: 390 km (210 nm) NE of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 415 km (225 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 5: 425 km (230 nm) ENE of Daet, Cam.Norte
Distance 6: 505 km (273 nm) ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 7: 540 km (292 nm) ENE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 8: 550 km (297 nm) ESE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 9: 605 km (327 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (105 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Polillo-Northern Quezon
Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 29 ft (8.8 m)
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:2 AM Fri Oct 30
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Fri Oct 30
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3)
Now In Effect:POLILLO ISLANDS.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
Now In Effect: METRO MANILA, CATANDUANES, CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, QUEZON, LUBANG IS., BATANGAS, LAGUNA, CAVITE, RIZAL, BATAAN, PAMPANGA, ZAMBALES, TARLAC, BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, QUIRINO, AND AURORA.

The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
Now In Effect:ISABELA, IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, BENGUET, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, ALBAY, BURIAS IS., SORSOGON, MARINDUQUE, ORIENTAL MINDORO, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, AND CALAMIAN GROUP.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html

Message appended on October 30, 2009 12:53PM

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed October 28 2009):

Now issuing 3-hrly Web, SMS & E-mail Advisories on TY MIRINAE (SANTI).

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MIRINAE (SANTI) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 kph

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EYEWALL PASSAGE FORECAST TIMES:

+ Camarines Norte: 8PM until 11PM tonight
+ Northern Quezon: 12MN until 4AM tomorrow
+ Metro Manila: 2AM until 6AM tomorrow.

Note: The EyeWall - is a ring of rain clouds surrounding the "EYE" of a Typhoon. It is here where the strongest winds and heaviest rain of a typhoon can be found. EPFT will show what local times on a given area the most damaging winds and heaviest rainfall could be experienced. EPFT changes everytime a new warning synopsis is issued. Important: This is only an estimate analysis, do not use this for life or death decisions.

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TYPHOON MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 014
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Fri 30 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC SATFIX & WARNING #017
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

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• ·  TyphoonMIRINAE(SANTI) has slightly moved again WSW...approaching the coastal areas of Northern Bicol...endangers Camarines Norte.
  
  *Residents and visitors along the Bicol Region, Eastern, Southern and Central Luzon should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).
  
  *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: The core (eye & eyewall) of MIRINAE is expected track more WSW within the next 12 hours, passing very close to Northern Camarines Sur...about 120 km. North of Naga City or 70 km. North of Siruma around 6 PM tonight...and passing very close to Camarines Norte - about 65 km. North of Daet around 8 PM tonight. Around midnight, the core will move across Polillo Island and make landfall over Infanta, Quezon around 2 AM tomorrow, Saturday...then traverse Central Luzon passing over Rizal-Northern Metro Manila around 3 AM...hitting Quezon City around 4 AM (about 28 km. North of Manila)...and across the Provinces of Bulacan, Southern Pampanga and Southern Zambales...passing over Subic Bay/Olongapo area between 5-9 AM tomorrow. Around noontime tomorrow, MIRINAE will be over the South China Sea. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system approaching the coast of Vietnam as a downgraded Tropical Storm due to increase wind shear over the area on Nov 1 through Nov 2...and then will make landfall over Vietnam on Monday Nov 02 and dissipate over Cambodia on Tuesday, Nov 03. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE's convective circulation remains strong as it moves closer to the Coast of Northern Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon. The EYE remains cloud-filled w/ inner rainbands now beginning to spread over Catanduanes...where stormy conditions not exceeding 100 kph can be expected. Its outer rainbands continues to spread across the whole Bicol Region...deteriorating across Camarines Provinces as the typhoon approaches...Strong winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected along the outer bands. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 10 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning tomorrow. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & Northern Visayas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

---

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Fri October 30 2009
Location of Eye: 15.0º N Lat 124.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 165 km (90 nm) NNE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 165 km (90 nm) NE of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 3: 225 km (123 nm) NNE of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 225 km (123 nm) NE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 5: 220 km (120 nm) ENE of Daet, Cam.Norte
Distance 6: 310 km (168 nm) SE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 7: 325 km (175 nm) ENE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 8: 345 km (185 nm) ESE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 9: 390 km (210 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (105 kts)
Click to view: Mirinae's Wind Analysis new!
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 31 kph (17 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Polillo-N.Quezon-Metro Manila
Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft (8.5 m)
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:8 AM Fri Oct 30
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Fri Oct 30
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3)
Now In Effect:NORTHERN QUEZON AND POLILLO ISLANDS.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: METRO MANILA, CATANDUANES, CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, QUEZON, LUBANG IS., BATANGAS, LAGUNA, CAVITE, RIZAL, BATAAN, PAMPANGA, ZAMBALES, TARLAC, BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, QUIRINO, AND AURORA.

The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect:ISABELA, IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, BENGUET, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, ALBAY, BURIAS IS., SORSOGON, MARINDUQUE, ORIENTAL MINDORO, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, AND CALAMIAN GROUP.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html

sana wala naman grabeng mangyari ulit

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri October 30 2009):

PAGASA has ammended their Signals...placing CATANDUANES, CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE & QUEZON under SIGNAL NO.03!!! Currently issuing 3-hrly Web & SMS Advisories on TY MIRINAE (SANTI)...while 6-hrly advisories continues for E-Mail.

---

MIRINAE (SANTI) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 kph

---

EYEWALL PASSAGE FORECAST TIMES:

+ Camarines Norte: 8PM until 11PM tonight
+ Northern Quezon: 12MN until 4AM tomorrow
+ Metro Manila: 2AM until 6AM tomorrow.

Note: The EyeWall - is a ring of rain clouds surrounding the "EYE" of a Typhoon. It is here where the strongest winds and heaviest rain of a typhoon can be found. EPFT will show what local times on a given area the most damaging winds and heaviest rainfall could be experienced. EPFT changes everytime a new warning synopsis is issued. Important: This is only an estimate analysis, do not use this for life or death decisions.

---

TYPHOON MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 014A
3:00 PM PST (07:00 GMT) Fri 30 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC SATFIX & WARNING #017
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

---

• ·  TyphoonMIRINAE(SANTI) slowing down as it slightly moved WSW...approaching the coastal areas of Northern Bicol...now endangers Catanduanes, Camarines Sur & Camarines Norte.
  
  *Residents and visitors along the Bicol Region, Eastern, Southern and Central Luzon should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).
  
  *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: The core (eye & eyewall) of MIRINAE is expected track more WSW within the next 12 hours, passing very close to Northern Camarines Sur...about 120 km. North of Naga City or 70 km. North of Siruma around 6 PM tonight...and passing very close to Camarines Norte - about 65 km. North of Daet around 8 PM tonight. Around midnight, the core will move across Polillo Island and make landfall over Infanta, Quezon around 2 AM tomorrow, Saturday...then traverse Central Luzon passing over Rizal-Northern Metro Manila around 3 AM...hitting Quezon City around 4 AM (about 28 km. North of Manila)...and across the Provinces of Bulacan, Southern Pampanga and Southern Zambales...passing over Subic Bay/Olongapo area between 5-9 AM tomorrow. Around noontime tomorrow, MIRINAE will be over the South China Sea. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system approaching the coast of Vietnam as a downgraded Tropical Storm due to increase wind shear over the area on Nov 1 through Nov 2...and then will make landfall over Vietnam on Monday Nov 02 and dissipate over Cambodia on Tuesday, Nov 03. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE's convective circulation remains strong as it moves closer to the Coast of Northern Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon. The EYE remains cloud-filled w/ inner rainbands now beginning to spread over Catanduanes...where stormy conditions not exceeding 100 kph can be expected. Its outer rainbands continues to spread across the whole Bicol Region...deteriorating across Camarines Provinces as the typhoon approaches...Strong winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected along the outer bands. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 10 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning tomorrow. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & Northern Visayas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

---

Time/Date: 3:00 PM PST Fri October 30 2009
Location of Eye: 14.8º N Lat 124.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 135 km (73 nm) North of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 130 km (70 nm) NNE of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 3: 195 km (105 nm) NNE of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 185 km (100 nm) NE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 5: 180 km (97 nm) NE of Daet, Cam.Norte
Distance 6: 205 km (110 nm) NNE of Sorsogon City
Distance 7: 290 km (157 nm) East of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 8: 320 km (173 nm) ESE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 9: 355 km (190 nm) East of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (105 kts)
Click to view: Mirinae's Wind Analysis new!
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Polillo-N.Quezon-Metro Manila
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft (8.5 m)
T2K TrackMap #05 (for Public):12 PM PST Fri Oct 30
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:8 AM Fri Oct 30
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Fri Oct 30
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3)
Now In Effect:CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, CATANDUANES, QUEZON AND POLILLO ISLANDS.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: METRO MANILA, BURIAS IS., ALBAY, MARINDUQUE, ORIENTAL MINDORO, LUBANG IS., BATANGAS, LAGUNA, CAVITE, RIZAL, BATAAN, PAMPANGA, ZAMBALES, TARLAC, BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, QUIRINO, AND AURORA.

The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect:ISABELA, IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, BENGUET, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, SORSOGON, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, AND CALAMIAN GROUP.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html

Forecast Track for Typhoon SANTI

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri October 30 2009):

Currently issuing 3-hrly Web & SMS Advisories on TY MIRINAE (SANTI)...while 6-hrly advisories continues for E-Mail.

---

MIRINAE (SANTI) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 kph

---

EYEWALL PASSAGE FORECAST TIMES:

+ Camarines Norte: 9PM until 12MN tonight
+ Northern Quezon: 1AM until 5AM tomorrow
+ Metro Manila: 3AM until 8AM tomorrow.

Note: The EyeWall - is a ring of rain clouds surrounding the "EYE" of a Typhoon. It is here where the strongest winds and heaviest rain of a typhoon can be found. EPFT will show what local times on a given area the most damaging winds and heaviest rainfall could be experienced. EPFT changes everytime a new warning synopsis is issued. Important: This is only an estimate analysis, do not use this for life or death decisions.

---

TYPHOON MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 015
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Fri 30 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC SATFIX & WARNING #018
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

---

• ·  TyphoonMIRINAE(SANTI) weakened slightly as it starts moving close to the coastal areas of Camarines Provinces...Rains and winds now starting to be felt across Northern Bicol.
  
  *Residents and visitors along the Bicol Region, Eastern, Southern and Central Luzon including Metro Manila should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).
  
  *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: The weakening core (eye & eyewall) of MIRINAE is expected track more WSW within the next 12 hours, passing very close to Northern Camarines Sur...about 110 km. North of Naga City or 65 km. North of Siruma around 9 or 10 PM tonight...and passing very close to Camarines Norte - about 55 km. North of Daet around 10 or 11 PM tonight. Around midnight, the core will move across Polillo Islands and make landfall just south of Infanta, Quezon around 2 or 3 AM tomorrow, Saturday...then traverse Northern Quezon-Rizal-Metro Manila-Manila Bay and Bataan between 4 AM until 9 AM. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system moving across the South China Sea on Nov 1 Sunday...and then will make landfall over Vietnam on Monday Nov 02 as a weakened Tropical Storm. It will dissipate over Cambodia on Tuesday, Nov 03. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE's convective circulation remains strong as it moves across the coastal areas of Camarines Provinces. The EYE remains cloud-filled w/ inner rainbands now affecting Catanduanes and Camarines Provinces. Stormy conditions not exceeding 100 kph can be expected along these areas. Its outer rainbands has started spreading across Bicol Region, Masbate, Northern Visayas and the rest of Luzon including Metro Manila...Strong winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected beginning tonight until tomorrow...Deteriorating weather conditions can be expected across Metro Manila just after midnight until the morning, as MIRINAE passes by. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning tomorrow. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & Northern Visayas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

---

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Fri October 30 2009
Location of Eye: 14.7º N Lat 123.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 95 km (50 nm) NNE of Siruma, Cam Sur
Distance 2: 100 km (55 nm) North of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 3: 125 km (67 nm) NE of Daet, Cam Norte
Distance 4: 130 km (70 nm) NNW of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 5: 145 km (78 nm) NNE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 6: 180 km (98 nm) North of Legazpi City
Distance 7: 235 km (127 nm) East of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 8: 300 km (162 nm) East of Quezon City
Distance 9: 315 km (170 nm) East of Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 160 kph (85 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph (105 kts)
Click to view: Mirinae's Latest Wind Analysis new!
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Polillo-N.Quezon-Metro Manila
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 27 ft (8.2 m)
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:2 PM Fri Oct 30
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Fri Oct 30
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3)
Now In Effect:METRO MANILA, CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, CATANDUANES, QUEZON, POLILLO ISLANDS, MARINDUQUE, LUBANG ISLAND, ORIENTAL MINDORO, BATANGAS, LAGUNA, CAVITE, RIZAL, BATAAN, AND BULACAN.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
Now In Effect: AURORA, QUIRINO, NUEVA ECIJA, TARLAC, PAMPANGA, ZAMBALES, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, ALBAY, AND BURIAS IS.

The above areas will experience stormy weather tonight and tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
Now In Effect:ISABELA, IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, BENGUET, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, SORSOGON, MASBATE, ROMBLON, CALAMIAN GROUP, NORTHERN PANAY, AND NORTHERN SAMAR.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tonight until tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html

Message appended on October 30, 2009 08:30PM

Thanks for the updated post kasulit, other sulit members can post their updates or alerts from other sites for Public Information Purpose Only and not intended for personal benefit and life and death situations just for pre-emptive measures to avoid deluge like what happened on Typhoons Pepeng and Ondoy. Sama-sama po tayo mga Pilipinong magtulungan at magbahagi ng kaalaman sa ating kapwa, Salamat Kasulit!




Message appended on October 30, 2009 11:57PM

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri October 30 2009):

Currently issuing 3-hrly Web & SMS Advisories on TY MIRINAE (SANTI)...while 6-hrly advisories continues for E-Mail.

---

MIRINAE (SANTI) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 kph

---

EYEWALL PASSAGE FORECAST TIMES:

+ Camarines Norte: 9PM until 12MN tonight
+ Northern Quezon: 1AM until 5AM tomorrow
+ Metro Manila: 3AM until 8AM tomorrow.

Note: The EyeWall - is a ring of rain clouds surrounding the "EYE" of a Typhoon. It is here where the strongest winds and heaviest rain of a typhoon can be found. EPFT will show what local times on a given area the most damaging winds and heaviest rainfall could be experienced. EPFT changes everytime a new warning synopsis is issued. Important: This is only an estimate analysis, do not use this for life or death decisions.

---

TYPHOON MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 015A
9:00 PM PST (13:00 GMT) Fri 30 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC SATFIX & WARNING #019
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

---

• ·  TyphoonMIRINAE(SANTI) approaching the coast of Camarines Norte...Rains and strong winds continuing across Northern Bicol.
  
  *Residents and visitors along the Bicol Region, Eastern, Southern and Central Luzon including Metro Manila should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).
  
  *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: The weakening core (eye & eyewall) of MIRINAE is expected track more WSW within the next 12 hours, passing very close to Northern Camarines Sur...about 110 km. North of Naga City or 65 km. North of Siruma around 9 or 10 PM tonight...and passing very close to Camarines Norte - about 55 km. North of Daet around 10 or 11 PM tonight. Around midnight, the core will move across Polillo Islands and make landfall just south of Infanta, Quezon around 2 or 3 AM tomorrow, Saturday...then traverse Northern Quezon-Rizal-Metro Manila-Manila Bay and Bataan between 4 AM until 9 AM. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system moving across the South China Sea on Nov 1 Sunday...and then will make landfall over Vietnam on Monday Nov 02 as a weakened Tropical Storm. It will dissipate over Cambodia on Tuesday, Nov 03. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE's convective circulation remains strong as it moves across the coastal areas of Camarines Provinces. The EYE remains cloud-filled w/ inner rainbands now affecting Catanduanes and Camarines Provinces. Stormy conditions not exceeding 100 kph can be expected along these areas. Its outer rainbands has started spreading across Bicol Region, Masbate, Northern Visayas and the rest of Luzon including Metro Manila...Strong winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected beginning tonight until tomorrow...Deteriorating weather conditions can be expected across Metro Manila just after midnight until the morning, as MIRINAE passes by. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning tomorrow. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & Northern Visayas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

---

Time/Date: 9:00 PM PST Fri October 30 2009
Location of Eye: 14.6º N Lat 123.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 65 km (35 nm) NNW of Siruma, Cam Sur
Distance 2: 110 km (60 nm) North of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 160 kph (85 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph (105 kts)
Click to view: Mirinae's Latest Wind Analysis new!
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Polillo-N.Quezon-Metro Manila
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 27 ft (8.2 m)
T2K TrackMap #06 (for Public):6 PM PST Fri Oct 30
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:2 PM Fri Oct 30
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Fri Oct 30
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3)
Now In Effect:METRO MANILA, CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, CATANDUANES, QUEZON, POLILLO ISLANDS, MARINDUQUE, LUBANG ISLAND, ORIENTAL MINDORO, BATANGAS, LAGUNA, CAVITE, RIZAL, BATAAN, AND BULACAN.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
Now In Effect: AURORA, QUIRINO, NUEVA ECIJA, TARLAC, PAMPANGA, ZAMBALES, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, ALBAY, AND BURIAS IS.

The above areas will experience stormy weather tonight and tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
Now In Effect:ISABELA, IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, BENGUET, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, SORSOGON, MASBATE, ROMBLON, CALAMIAN GROUP, NORTHERN PANAY, AND NORTHERN SAMAR.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tonight until tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html

Naandito na ang bagyong Santi sa Metro Manila, lakas ng hangin at ulan kakatakot nanaman, mag-ingat mga kasulit!

sakit naman.. ayaw tayong tigilan pa. di pa nga nakakabawi eh..

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri October 30 2009):

Ending our 3-hrly updates and back to its normal 6-hrly Advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS MIRINAE (SANTI).

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MIRINAE (SANTI) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 10 kph

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TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K ADVISORY NUMBER 017
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Sat 31 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC SATFIX & WARNING #021
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

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• ·  Tropical StormMIRINAE(SANTI) accelerating westward away from Southern Luzon...improving weather conditions expected this afternoon.
  
  *Residents and visitors along Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).
  
  *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE is expected to continue tracking westward into the central part of the South China Sea. The 3-day Medium-Range Forecast shows maintaining its speed and strength as a strong tropical storm as it approaches the coast of Central Vietnam tomorrow evening. It will make its final landfall over Vienam on Monday, November 02 and dissipate over Cambodia on Tuesday, November 03. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE's weakened circulation is now over the South China Sea, still bringing strong winds and high surf across the area. Improving weather conditions continuing across Southern Tagalog and the rest of Southern Luzon including Metro Manila. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 45 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 100 mm (heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Southern Tagalog Provinces particularly along the coast of Batangas and Mindoro. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

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Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Sat October 31 2009
Location of Center: 14.4º N Lat 119.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 105 km (57 nm) WSW of Subic/Olongapo City
Distance 2: 120 km (65 nm) SSW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 3: 135 km (73 nm) WNW of Nasugbu, Batangas
Distance 4: 175 km (95 nm) WNW of Tagaytay City
Distance 5: 175 km (95 nm) West of Manila
Distance 6: 185 km (100 nm) West of Quezon City
Distance 7: 420 km (225 nm) WNW of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Click to view: Mirinae's Latest Wind Analysis new!
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 100 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Vietnam
Size (in Diameter): 480 km (260 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
T2K TrackMap #07 (for Public):8 AM PST Sat Oct 31
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:8 AM Sat Oct 31
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Sat Oct 31
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3)
In Effect:LUBANG ISLAND AND NORTHERN MINDORO.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: METRO MANILA, BATAAN, CAVITE, BATANGAS, REST OF MINDORO, AND CALAMIAN GROUP.

The above areas will experience stormy weather this afternoon (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect:ZAMBALES, TARLAC, PAMPANGA, BULACAN, RIZAL, LAGUNA, QUEZON, MARINDUQUE, AND NORTHERN PALAWAN.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html

Message appended on November 1, 2009 08:54AM

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun November 01 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly Advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS MIRINAE (SANTI).

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MIRINAE (SANTI) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 kph

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TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K ADVISORY NUMBER 018
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Sun 01 November 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC SATFIX & WARNING #024
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

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• ·  Tropical StormMIRINAE(SANTI) weakens as strong NE cold surge off China brings dry air into its circulation...will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) today...All Philippine Storm Signals are now lowered by PAGASA.
  
  *Residents and visitors along Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).
  
  *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE is expected to continue tracking westward as it weakens further...it shall be approaching the coast of Vietnam in 24 hours. The 1-day Short-Range Forecast shows the system making landfall over Vietnam tomorrow morning...dissipating later in the afternoon. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE's radial circulation continues to lose strength as dry air entrainment from a cold NE surge off China enters the system. This storm is no longer affecting any land areas. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 80 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 125 mm (heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

Tropical Disturbance 97W [LPA] a new one over the Philippine Sea east of Luzon is slowly organizing...currently located near lat 15.5N lon 131.8E...or about 845 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes...1,155 km East of Metro Manila ...950 km ENE of Naga City. It has 1-min. windspeeds of 30 kph near the center...moving westward slowly.

Kindly click the T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

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        Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sun November 01 2009
Location of Center: 14.2º N Lat 115.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 510 km (275 nm) WSW of Subic/Olongapo City
Distance 2: 575 km (310 nm) WNW of Puerto Galera
Distance 3: 595 km (322 nm) West of Metro Manila
Distance 4: 820 km (443 nm) ESE of Da Nang, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Click to view: Mirinae's Latest Wind Analysis new!
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 125 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Vietnam
Size (in Diameter): 520 km (280 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
T2K Final TrackMap #08 (for Public):6 AM PST Sun Nov 01
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:2 AM Sun Nov 01
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Sun Nov 01
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1-day Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html